Wednesday, June 17, 2015

The end is near...

Bond Bombshell...

By Clive Maund

DEFLATION RULES! – because periodic recessions, necessary to rebalance the economy after periods of growth, cannot be put off forever by the short-term expedient of printing money. The result of such corrupt and evasive practices is that the deflationary forces build up to catastrophic and overwhelming proportions leading to economic collapse and depression. This is the point that we have arrived at now. Why can’t governments keep the game going indefinitely by printing more and more money? – because the debt grows and grows until it becomes apparent even to dull-witted bond / Treasury holders that they are never going to get their money back, so they start selling and the selling snowballs into an avalanche, driving interest rates through the roof. Bond and stockmarkets crash and the economy sinks into a dangerously deep depression, all because governments stubbornly refused to do the right thing all along, and interfered with and obstructed normal market forces, culminating in their idiotic and ruinous QE, ZIRP and now even NIRP.

Of course, the mainstream financial media are trying to portray the recent trend of rising interest rates as a sign that the economy is recovering, saying that it is increasing demand in the economy that is driving rates up. If this is so then why is the Baltic Dry Index, which is a measure of shipping rates, at rock bottom depression levels, and why are commodity prices near to their 2008 – 2009 crash lows?? No – the reason that rates are going up is that bond holders have finally seen the writing on the wall and woken up to the fact that governments around the world not only have no intention of honoring their debts, but are incapable of doing so, even if they wanted to, so why should they hold on to piles of ultimately worthless paper that don’t even yield anything in the here and now? This is why bond and Treasury prices have been dropping, and notwithstanding any short-term bounce to alleviate the short-term oversold condition, look set to go into a self-feeding downward spiral that will drive rates sharply higher, turning the Fed into an impotent bystander. All this looks set to happen with a rapidity that will surprise many people and catch them off guard, particularly those who complacently assume that the long uptrend in many stockmarkets is set to continue forever.

Alright, so what is set to happen and what will drop and what will go up? Bond, commodity and stockmarkets look set to crash, with the rising rates associated with falling bond prices ripping the rug out from under the stockmarket. A wild “dash for cash” would be the result of this that will drive the dollar to possibly dizzying heights, like 2008 on steroids. Eventually, after this “swansong” rally, the dollar will crash and burn, especially when China – Russia roll out their gold backed new world reserve currency, an event which could trigger a war. Gold and silver will likely get caught up in this maelstrom and drop to new lows, despite imminent positive seasonal factors, but will later emerge into spectacular bullmarkets, and it will be important for any investors wanting to buy physical gold and silver to aim to do so ahead of the crash bottom, because after the turn it will be almost impossible to buy physical, and also to keep in mind that governments can be expected to pass laws enabling them to forcibly steal your gold and silver – so give some thought to where you are going to store it.

Our tactics therefore involve 2 main planks – cash: the US dollar, and bear ETFs, in bonds on any bounce and in stocks immediately. The more daring may consider out of the money Puts, and you should “swing until you hit”, rolling into the next series until the plunge occurs. We hold off buying the Precious Metals sector until this last takedown has run its course, which will likely see gold drop to the $850 – $1000 area and silver to about $10. Then we come out “guns blazing” because the ensuing rally in gold and silver is likely to be spectacular, dwarfing what occurred in the late 70’s.

Let’s now quickly review some relevant charts.

We start with the 13-year chart for TLT, which is a good long T-Bond proxy. On this chart we see that despite the recent sharp drop, predicted on the site in the last Bond Market update, it still hasn’t broken down from its long-term uptrend. The later stages of its bullmarket advance were of course fuelled by ZIRP, but since interest rates can’t go much below 0, it is pretty obvious that this bullmarket has run its course, especially with rates looking set to rise in the face of Sovereign defaults. It is therefore expected to break down from this long-term uptrend to enter a bearmarket...

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