Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Buy the dips...
In an interview with ET Now, Jim Rogers, Chairman, Rogers Holdings, shares his outlook on commodities and the falling rupee. Excerpts:
Gold has been down 10% in the past week and is at an 8-week low today. Given this, what is your outlook for gold prices and do you see gold near $2000 per ounce in the near to medium term?
We have discussed before that gold has been up 10 years in a row, which is very unusual in any asset class. So if it is up this year or 11 years in a row, gold is overdue for a correction and it could have a nice substantial correction given that it has been so strong.
I have no idea what is going to happen this year. I doubt if it will go to $2000 an ounce in 2011, it is more likely to have a correction which will last for several weeks, several months. It has been very strong. If it goes down some more, I would buy more gold as I have told you many times.
Silver has been one of your favourites, but that is down 24% in the past week. Are you still buying?
Not yet, but if silver continues to go down as we have discussed before, I will buy more silver too. Do not sell your silver, do not sell your gold unless you are a short-term trader, but anybody who is in this for a long term, silver and gold will both go much higher over the next few years.
Then, let's talk about base metals. Copper has seen quite a drubbing down 30% over the last one month. Are you seeing more downside for most of these base metals?
That is a big big sell off, 30% in anything in that shorter period of time. So it is a shock, but I would expect most things to continue to correct and react because the world has got serious problems facing in the future. Base metals will be affected by reduced demand.
Other commodities will continue to do well, but base metals certainly would be affected by reduction in demand and you know what is happening in Europe, you know what is happening in America. So be careful. I am not selling any of my commodities. I am not selling my base metals, but I am not jumping in to buy either.
Tell us why do you believe precious metals are correcting? Do you believe this is just an unwinding of positions or a genuine slowdown in investment and safe haven demand?
No, it is panic, it is fear. When fear permeates a market, everybody sells, especially the last ones in, frequently have to jump out. They have raised margin requirements for both silver and gold. So that makes it more and more difficult for people to hold on.