by Raven Clabough
Days ago, reports revealed that Ron Paul is in a dead heat in the Iowa caucus with Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. Since then, Paul has also gained support in New Hampshire, where he is now in second place in the polls.
A Bloomberg News New Hampshire poll reveals that Paul currently sits at 17 percent in New Hampshire, surpassing the new GOP frontrunner Newt Gingrich, who garnered 11 percent of the vote, and Herman Cain, who received just 7 percent. The only candidate ahead of Paul is Mitt Romney, who sits comfortably at 40 percent.
Bloomberg News reports, “New Hampshire is the focal point of Romney’s campaign strategy. If he can win Iowa and New Hampshire, it could put him on a clear path to the nomination. And if he loses Iowa, a New Hampshire victory will be his firewall.”
“You just don’t have any volatility in these numbers. He’s liked and widely liked,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the New Hampshire poll.
Because Romney has made New Hampshire a focal point of his campaign, however, Paul’s second place finish in the primary would reflect a strong showing of support.
Bloomberg News observed:
Paul’s contact rate with voters is the only one that matches Romney’s, at 52 percent in New Hampshire. The rate at which his campaign is able to bring those likely voters into the fold is 22 percent, half that of Romney at 44 percent. “A lot of people aren’t giving him the press that he needs,” said Kristine Haase, 26, a customer service representative in rural New Hampshire. “There’s more people supporting him then they really know.”
Paul’s progress in the polls has been somewhat surprising given the lack of attention he receives in the mainstream media, and the minimal amount of time he is provided during the debates. During the CBS debate that took place on Saturday, November 12, for example, Paul was given a mere 89 seconds of talking time.
Still, following that debate, a Bloomberg News poll showed that Paul is currently in a four-way Republican dead heat against other GOP top contenders. Bloomberg News reports:
A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away.
“In Iowa, it’s long been a two-person race between Romney and someone else,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll for Bloomberg. “It is now a four-person race between Romney and three someone elses.”
Paul’s campaign has been working particularly hard in Iowa, and it has been paying off. According to Federal Elections Commission records, Paul has received over $77,000 in contributions from Iowa so far in this election cycle, a full $10,000 more than Romney. The only person to have raised more in Iowa is President Obama, who has reached $200,000 in contributions.
In August, Ron Paul came in a close second in the Iowa straw poll, having received 44 percent of the vote.
Appearing on Fox News, Congressman Paul indicated that he needs to win at least one of the three early primaries and place second in one of them for his campaign to continue with its momentum.
“I would be disappointed with third.” Paul recently told Fox News, adding “If I come in third I’m still alive, but I think I better do first or second in a couple of those. I have to do well in January.”
Even as Paul is virtually tied with his follow GOP contenders, however, the Texas congressman seems to be in a better position than the others. According to that poll, Paul’s support is “more solidified than his rivals,” a significant item worth noting since 60 percent of the poll’s respondents said they could still be persuaded to change their vote.
Among Paul’s supporters, 32 percent indicate they are sticking with him, while 25 percent of Romney’s supporters have made similar assertions, and a mere 17 percent of Gingrich’s supporters said the same.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows Paul is leading against President Obama amongst independent voters, 48 to 39 percent. In fact, Paul is the only GOP candidate to beat President Obama amongst independent voters.
“This is yet another poll that clearly shows how competitive Ron Paul is against the sitting President,” said Ron Paul 2012 National Campaign Chairman Jesse Benton. “Dr. Paul is making strides not just among Republicans, but independent voters as well. This broad base of increasing support proves that the American people are looking for conviction instead of the typical status quo rhetoric being offered by establishment candidates.”
Still, even as Paul has a strong showing in the poll, Public Policy Polling wrote of the results:
Ron Paul doesn't have much of a chance at the nomination, but he ties Gingrich for 2nd closest to Obama honors, also trailing by 6 points at 47-41. Paul does have one thing to hang his hat on — he is the only one of the Republicans who leads Obama with independents, 48-39. The problem for him is that independents like him better than Republican voters do, which won't take him very far in the nomination fight.
By contrast, The Hill’s Brent Budowsky wrote, “For now anyone who is a serious political analyst should take seriously, and report fairly, the Bloomberg poll showing the Ron Paul surge. Future polls will confirm or refute the Bloomberg numbers, but they should receive the attention they deserve.”
Noting that it is “shameful” way that Paul’s successes in both Iowa and New Hampshire are being ignored by the media, Budowsky predicts, “I suspect Ron Paul will perform better in real voting, especially caucus voting, than his poll numbers because of the devotion of his supporters.”
Meanwhile, though Public Policy Polling figures show that Obama’s approval rating (45) remains below his disapproval rating (51), the poll also shows that Obama currently leads against all Republican presidential contenders, including Mitt Romney, whom the President leads by 3 points.
“This is one of Barack Obama’s better performances in our polling in recent months,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s only the second time since June we’ve found him with a lead over Mitt Romney.”
Link:
http://thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/9818-ron-paul-surges-in-polls
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