Posted by Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich’s long, slow fade into political oblivion in this presidential primary race has received lots — and lots — of attention.
“People walk up again and again and say, ‘Please stay in, and please fight for conservatism’,” Gingrich told the Post’s Karen Tumulty over the weekend. (Gingrich has never been one to hide his light under a bushel.)
Rumors fly constantly — some cropped up late last week — that conservatives are attempting to broker a deal whereby Gingrich gets out of the race (he’s not going to) and throws his support behind former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. Conservatives are united and reenergized, the logic goes, and Gingrich, who has won a total of one state outside of his home state of Georgia, saves the conservative cause.
There’s only one problem with all of that: There’s virtually no evidence that Gingrich retains any significant constituency within the GOP or will play an influential role in the presidential race as it moves to its general election phase.
In fact, there is a case to be made that Gingrich matters far less in the contest than Texas Rep. Ron Paul.
To wit:
* In the last two major primaries — Illinois and Wisconsin — Paul has finished third, Gingrich fourth.
* As of the end of February, Paul had raised $35 million for his 2012 campaign. Gingrich had raised $20 million.
* Paul’s ideas on domestic policy — distrust of the Federal Reserve, dire warnings about the massive debt being run up by the government — have clearly influenced the rhetoric (and thinking) of the GOP. Gingrich’s most notable contribution — idea-wise — to the race thus far is his call for $2.50 gas. While that might be a smart strategy, it’s more a goal than an idea.
Based on those three points alone, the Paul-ites could argue their man has been a bigger force in the direction of the race that Gingrich. Allies of the former speaker could push back — rightly — that their candidate actually won two states (South Carolina and his home state of Georgia) and, unlike Paul, had a path to victory. True enough.
But, when it comes to the future of the contest, it’s hard to dispute that Paul matters more than Gingrich. As we have written before, Paul has a group of supporters whose ardor for his message is far greater than any other candidate can boast. Not only that, but Paul’s backers are loyal first and foremost to Paul — not to the Republican party. And that’s what makes Paul potentially influential as the race moves forward.
A Paul third-party candidacy would, barring some sort of unforeseen dynamic, likely hand President Obama a second term. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and his campaign team understand the power that Paul could wield and have gone out of their way to befriend him — and avoid alienating his supporters.
At some point between now an August, Paul and his people will want something — a speaking slot at the national convention? Consideration of Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul as a running mate? — from Romney World.
They may not get it. But Paul is in a much stronger bargaining position than Gingrich to extract promises from Romney because he can do far more damage if he isn’t placated. That’s why — though both men have zero chance of being their party’s standard-bearer — Paul matters more than Gingrich.
Link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-ron-paul-matters-more-than-newt-gingrich/2012/04/09/gIQAWHEh5S_blog.html
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