Cold Season Loses Its Chill, Giving a New View of Winter
By MATTHEW L. WALD
Published: June 30, 1991
Not only the cold war is over; so, apparently, are cold winters. The official heating season of 1990-91 ends today, and in many places, the weather was the mildest it had been in 30 years.
How cold wasn't it? For the 12-month period that ends today, temperatures in New York and Washington were 18 percent warmer than normal, Boston 14 percent, Cleveland 14 percent, Chicago 9 percent, Seattle 6 percent and even Fairbanks, Alaska, by about 6 percent.
The season included the latest in a string of warm winters that are cumulatively changing the way people think about winter. The National Weather Service measures cold with a unit called the degree-day, which is used by utilities and oil suppliers to measure demand for fuel. But the change has been visible in simpler ways.
In New Hampshire, for example, executives of an outdoor goods retailer are wondering how much long underwear they should stock. And manufacturers of snow blowers have reported a 20 percent decline in business. Price of Natural Gas Drops
Years of warm weather, topped by an exceptionally warm winter, have driven the price of natural gas to a record low. So the industry is now trying hard to sell gas to businesses that out need it all year.
According to Paul G. Knight, a meteorologist at the Penn State Weather Communications Group, a part of Penn State University, the differences in winter temperatures are large, since a change of 3 to 5 percent is considered significant.
Speaking of cold in percentages is not exactly commonplace, but is based on the degree-day, which is a long-established measurement. One degree-day is added to the season total for each degree that a day's average temperature falls below 65. For example, if the average temperature on New Year's Day is 40 degrees, the weather service will count 25 degree-days for that day. New York recorded 3,973 degree-days, or 895 below normal. Washington, which was also 18 percent warmer than normal, recorded 3,398, or 724 degree-days short.
If that seems abstract, consider the measurement of Daniel P. Bohen, the Commissioner of General Services in Buffalo, who is responsible for buying the city's road salt. Yes, he said, Buffalo used less salt last winter than usual. But more noticeable to Mr. Bohen is that Lake Erie, outside his window, had open water when it should have been frozen, and at Christmas, when the back door to his house should have been blocked with snow, he was using the backyard barbecue grill.
At W. L. Gore and Associates, the Newark, Del., firm that makes Gore-tex fabrics, Stephen E. Shuster, an executive involved in planning, said that after a string of warm winters, "there's more risk these days in putting out an insulated piece of clothing."
"Three and a half years ago," he said, "we started to see a change away from insulated apparel, to zip-in, zip-out interchangeable systems. "
Although warmer weather encourages people to spend more time outdoors, they almost certainly do not need long underwear, as William E. Ferry, the president of Eastern Mountain Sports of Peterborough, N.H., has discovered. Less Long Underwear for Sale
At the company's 47 stores, mostly in New England but also in Colorado, and Minnesota and New York, sales of cold-weather gear like long underwear are down 20 percent, he said. "We simply are now taking a tack where we're looking to optimize the business, instead of maximize it," he said. In other words, E.M.S. will stock less long underwear and similar goods and accept the higher risk of running out in winter.
Meteorologists say that although a series of many warm winters is consistent with global warming, it is far from being conclusive evidence. Mr. Knight, the meteorologist, said it was possible that North America goes through cycles of 100 or 150 years, with warm temperatures now approaching a peak, and then a shift back to colder temperatures. If that happens, he said, "in 15 years we could think that in the 1990's we were stupid, thinking it would be hot all the time." But accurate records do not extend far enough to tell if we are in such a cycle, he said.
If the world is really warming, natural gas producers are determined to be ready. This summer the American Gas Association is testing its greenhouse weapon, a gas-powered air conditioner.
Link:
http://www.nytimes.com/1991/06/30/us/cold-season-loses-its-chill-giving-a-new-view-of-winter.html
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